Sovereign debt as strategy: Kathleen Brown on the politics behind the numbers
On Tuesday 30 September 2025, PhD candidate Kathleen Brown will defend her dissertation 'Deception, Risk, and Evasion: The Politics of Sovereign Debt in Emerging Markets' in Leiden’s Academy Building. Her research sheds light on the hidden world of sovereign debt politics, revealing how governments in the Global South navigate the pressures of global finance with creativity, strategy, and sometimes deception.
More than numbers
Brown’s dissertation challenges the common view of debt as a purely technical, numerical issue. Instead, she shows that sovereign debt is deeply political. ‘Debt isn’t just about numbers: it’s about power, strategy, and survival,’ she explains. At a time when COVID-19, rising global interest rates, and geopolitical shocks have fueled debt crises, she set out to understand three key questions: why governments hide loans, how the IMF protects its own interests, and how austerity shapes citizen behavior.
Her findings highlight the strategic agency of borrowing governments. Many conceal loans to avoid breaching thresholds set by the IMF and World Bank, but reveal more information when under IMF scrutiny. Meanwhile, the IMF itself, far from being a neutral referee, often tightens conditions when its own financial exposure is high, behaving more like a cautious creditor. On the citizen side, Brown shows that austerity measures can backfire: in contexts where trust in government is low, they may actually drive more tax evasion and capital flight. Ultimately, the work reframes the politics of debt, portraying low- and middle-income countries not as passive victims but as active players reshaping global financial rules to their own advantage.
From curiosity to dissertation
Brown began her PhD knowing she wanted to study the politics of public debt, but without a clear picture of what approach she would take. ‘I became curious about an inconsistency I saw in global policy discussions of sovereign debt. On the one hand, debt is always framed as this big, bad, existential threat for low-income nations, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. News articles, the IMF, and Western policymakers describe these countries as ‘drowning’ in debt, treating it as a roadblock to development and growth. But on the other hand, these same governments celebrate when they can borrow. They issue triumphant press releases when they secure loans or enter private bond markets, calling it an investment in the future. So, what is it then? Is debt good or bad? The answer to this, and all social science questions, is of course: ‘it depends.’ I was curious to figure out what the effects of sovereign debt depend on.’
The specific spark for her dissertation came not from academic research but from the popular press. During the second COVID-19 lockdown, and still only a few months into her PhD, she found herself anxious about not having a ‘brilliant’ idea. ‘I didn’t think I’d ever come up with one sitting at home, alone, during lockdown,’ she recalls. ‘My very wise supervisor Matt DiGiuseppe was less nervous, and suggested I set up a system to help me brainstorm by absorbing as much of recent literature and news as possible. I set up alerts on Google Scholar, Bloomberg, the Economist, Reuters, etc. for keywords like sovereign debt crisis, default, debt risk, and secret.’
One day, a Bloomberg piece on large Chinese loans to African governments caught her attention. That article eventually led her to a 2019 working paper by Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch on hidden loans from China. ‘Their work asked whether these secretive loans were damaging for borrowing countries. I wanted to know something different: why were they hidden in the first place? That became the first chapter of my dissertation.’
Reframing debt politics
By tracing these questions, Brown’s research reframes the role of low- and middle-income countries in global finance. Rather than passive recipients of decisions made by major financial powers, she argues, they are active players reshaping financial rules to their own advantage. ‘Even the most cash-strapped government builds creative — and sometimes manipulative — strategies to get what it wants,’ she notes.
She hopes her work will encourage more scholars to center the agency of borrowing governments. ‘Many current political economy models assume that these governments just react to the decisions of major powers, financial institutions, or global market trends. My research shows this is not always the case. Looking at their strategies directly will help us understand how economic crises develop and are resolved, and why some countries succeed while others stagnate.’
Lessons learned
The dissertation also taught Brown some personal lessons. ‘I learned that there are limits to my self-discipline! I always thought of myself as a very organized, efficient person — until I was left completely to my own devices to finish the dissertation,’ she explains. A lot of procrastination ensued. ‘Whereas previously I could rely on the structure of deadlines, or check-ins from a boss or my supervisor, now I needed to build that structure for myself to get things done.’ She focused on working in the early mornings when she was most productive, promising progress to colleagues as a commitment device, and putting her phone aside more.
Another discovery was how much she enjoyed teaching. ‘I had never taught before starting the PhD and honestly didn’t think I’d like it. But leading my own courses turned out to be incredibly rewarding — the passion my students brought was infectious and made me more curious about my own work. That said, it also reminded me that I am no longer a spring chicken: I don’t know any of the TikTok slang, and apparently the music I listen to is already considered “vintage”. You win some, you lose some.’
Looking ahead
Since August, Brown has been working as a postdoctoral researcher at Leiden’s Institute of Security and Global Affairs. She contributes to the EU Horizon-funded project Networks and the Rule of Law (NET-ROL), which studies how political and economic networks affect democratic resilience and socio-economic outcomes across the EU.
Her defence will take place on 30 September 2025 at the Academy Building, under the supervision of dr. M.R. di Giuseppe, dr. R. van der Haer, and Prof. dr. D.C. Thomas.