The Dutch ‘just in time’ mentality won’t work in a war situation
Modern warfare knows no boundaries. Threats are increasingly digital. PhD candidate Annelies van Vark claims that Scandinavia is better prepared to deal with threats. She advocates a stronger role for the armed forces, reintroducing conscription and heightened readiness – also among citizens.
What’s wrong with the current approach in the Netherlands?
‘The Dutch are known for organising everything as efficiently as possible: “just in time, just enough”. That approach usually works fine, but not in a crisis situation.
Suppose a war breaks out between NATO and Russia and a large section of our armed forces depart for Eastern Europe? Soldiers, vehicles, weapons and other equipment then have to travel east along motorways and by rail. For citizens, everything would grind to a halt with all the ensuing problems. Take our food supply, which is also arranged as efficiently as possible: local supermarkets are normally stocked a few times a day. If trucks can no longer deliver supplies because roads are blocked, that’s a problem.’
You examined the situation in Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands. What can we learn from Scandinavia?
‘Finland is good at stockpiling. There are grain supplies that can feed the entire population for six to nine months. They also have enough bomb shelters for everyone.
Finns and Swedes believe it is everyone's responsibility to ensure society is resilient; in their 'whole-of-society approach', this task is shared among the government, companies, civil society organisations such as the Red Cross, and citizens too.
The Dutch are far more individualistic. In Scandinavia, contributing to society is far more evident in people’s DNA. An explanation for that lies in the past: since the Second World War, these countries – Finland in particular – have felt the threat from neighbouring Russia.'
How much time do we have to bring about a change in culture?
‘The threat is serious. We don't know whether Russia will attack a NATO country, but we have to be prepared for it. And attacks in the grey area between war and peace are already occurring on a daily basis. Think of cyberattacks, or the drones that have popped up all over Europe in recent weeks and may be coming from the Russians.
It is unrealistic to think we can be as well prepared as Finland that has an eighty year lead. But doing absolutely nothing is the other extreme. We cannot afford that.
And it’s not just military threats we’re dealing with. We also need to be prepared for other crises such as a major power outage or a flood. Climate change means that natural disasters will become more frequent. If such a disaster lasts longer than a few days and affects a large area, we’ll soon be facing difficulties here. This is not something the government can solve alone; we need the commitment of the entire country.'
Why do you argue in your dissertation for a different role for the armed forces in the Netherlands?
'In the Netherlands, the armed forces defend us in the event of an external threat and the police oversee internal security. If a missile is fired at the port of Rotterdam, the armed forces will act. But in the event of a major cyberattack, the responsibility lies with the police. This separation of tasks doesn’t work in modern warfare – cyberattacks can also cause serious disruption. So, when is it wise to deploy the armed forces? Preferably not on the streets to maintain public order – that calls for caution as it clashes with our culture. But it is possible in the digital domain. And apart from such tasks, the armed forces in the Netherlands should at least be more visible, speak out more, and be given more space to hold training exercises’.
Would reintroducing conscription be a good idea, as proposed by some political parties?
‘I’m all in favour of conscription, which still exists here officially though it’s been suspended. As far as I’m concerned, it’s a community service, where you can serve not only in the armed forces, but also in other sectors such as healthcare, the police, or other important organisations in a crisis situation.
My research shows that the democratic rule of law is under pressure, partly as a result of diminishing social cohesion. A conscription system is something that could help to strengthen social cohesion and thus contribute to stability. In Finland, military service (compulsory for men, optional for women) has had exactly that effect: people came out of their bubble. Dutch people who once did military service also often talk about the community spirit they experienced.
Besides limited military service (around 10% of this generation does military service), Sweden is experimenting with a social variant. Inspiration for this idea came from Ukraine, where emergency services such as the fire brigade, police and power companies are overburdened because of the war. Recovery is often successful there, but that requires enough people who are properly trained. Sweden is making preparations to achieve that.'
Conscription still applies in the Netherlands
When political parties talk about 'reintroducing conscription', that is not quite true. Conscription still exists for people between the ages of 17 and 45 and has therefore never been abolished. What is true is that the attendance obligation has been suspended which means that the Dutch Ministry of Defence does not call up people to serve. That obligation could be reactivated.
Van Vark will defend her PhD thesis entitled 'Separation and immersion: the changing role of the armed forces in Northwestern liberal democracies’ on 17 October 2025 at 10.00 in the Academy Building. The Dutch summary of her thesis is available here and you can follow the livestream of the defence ceremony here.