How vulnerable is the Netherlands to an energy crisis?
The Iran war has pushed up fuel prices and raised concerns about a global energy shortage. How well prepared is the Netherlands? We asked two experts, one in public administration and the other in natural resources.
Arjen Boin, Professor of Public Institutions and Governance: ‘I think the Netherlands is quite vulnerable’
How prepared is the Netherlands for a prolonged crisis?
‘If this continues for longer, we could face an economic crisis or serious shortages, with unpredictable consequences. Take the large fertiliser plants in Pakistan, for example, which rely on gas from Qatar.
‘If those gas deliveries are disrupted and production comes to a halt, the impact will be felt across the northern hemisphere, especially now, during the planting season. This could lead to food shortages, which in turn could cause migration or even conflict.
‘On top of that, with the Netherlands still dealing with economic fragility and political instability, you already have the ingredients for a situation that could escalate significantly. And that would make the Netherlands quite vulnerable.
‘I don’t think we properly evaluated the pandemic. Covid fragmented society and undermined trust in government, the media and science. That makes it harder for a government to act effectively during a real crisis. I also wonder whether the recent government campaign on emergency preparedness was urgent enough to change people’s mindset.’
How can we strengthen our resilience?
‘We need to think about setting up local emergency support centres, and we’re already taking steps in that direction. We’re also investing in defence. Critical infrastructure providers and public authorities are preparing contingency plans for major disruptions. And we’re working on strengthening democratic resilience.
‘It’s a huge undertaking and we’re not there yet, but we’re heading in the right direction. The budgets that have been earmarked for this could be bigger.’
What can governments do to help citizens become more resilient?
‘The Netherlands has a strong tradition of clubs and associations that have direct contact with their members and indirect connections to their families. That’s essential because these groups know a lot about their own members, including who may be vulnerable and what people need. You can reach a lot of people through that network.
‘Local and national government should proactively contact these associations and provide guidance on what to do during a crisis. What information could these associations collect? And what should they do with that information?’
René Kleijn, Professor of Industrial Ecology: ‘We need save much more energy and generate far more of it ourselves’
The Netherlands relies on foreign energy and natural resources. How serious is the situation?
‘In 2024, as much as 78 per cent of our energy, such as natural gas, oil and coal, was imported. And we’re almost entirely dependent on other countries for key metals and minerals used in batteries and wind turbines, for example.
‘In the event of a war and sanctions, prices here could rise sharply, and resources would be far more limited. This might force some companies to temporarily halt operations, which would seriously affect industry.
‘Only a small proportion of the oil and gas consumed in the Netherlands comes from the Strait of Hormuz. But as the oil and gas market is global, prices are rising here too. A relatively small country like the Netherlands can’t solve this vulnerability on its own. We really need a European approach, and although progress is slow, it is being made.’
Did the Netherlands take sufficient long-term measures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the rapid rise in energy prices?
‘The Netherlands did quickly reduce its dependence on Russian gas – for example, by importing liquid natural gas from other countries, mainly the US, and by filling gas storage facilities. But our reliance on the US is now quite rightly being questioned.
‘Gas consumption has fallen sharply in recent years due to energy savings, better insulation and increased use of renewable sources. But the system is still not resilient: the electricity grid is at full capacity, storage and flexibility lag behind, and we remain dependent on a handful of major suppliers in the US and China.
‘To build a robust energy system, we need to save much more energy and generate far more of it ourselves – for instance, by building large offshore wind farms. ‘We also need to work towards a genuinely European energy system with far more cross-border connections than we currently have.’
The energy transition would reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, but it relies on rare materials. Does that make the Netherlands more vulnerable in a crisis like this?
‘There’s a fundamental difference between these types of dependency. When coal, oil and gas imports stop, the effects are almost immediate. Solar cells and wind turbines do need materials such as lithium, but if imports suddenly cease, the solar and wind capacity we already have will continue to generate electricity for years. That makes the problem far less urgent.
‘What is essential is that we develop our own expertise in sustainable energy. To maintain the stability and resilience of the energy system, we have to spread the risks and avoid becoming overly dependent on any single partner.’