Who would be in the House of Representatives if only preferential votes counted?
‘Men must make way. GroenLinks–PvdA voters are sending at least three additional women into the House of Representatives through preferential votes,’ Trouw headlined this week. What would happen if we allocated all seats on the basis of preferential votes? And would we see differences between the parties?
The short answers: we would have more women in the House of Representatives - but mainly within the progressive parties. For while a preferential vote for a woman is very real - overall, preferential votes tend to go to women - this pattern is more pronounced on the left.
What follows is a brief analysis of all the virtual shifts that would occur within the top 25 candidates of the GL/PvdA, D66, CDA, VVD and PVV lists if seats were allocated on the basis of preferential votes. For reasons of data availability, I focus on the 2023 elections and compare the candidate lists for the Amsterdam constituency with the reordered list based on preferential votes.
In 2023, one woman; now, four additional women
Just to be clear: this reordering is purely hypothetical. In reality, a candidate only qualifies for a seat through preferential votes if they pass the preference threshold. That threshold is set at 25% of the electoral quota (see here).
In 2023, a candidate needed 17,459 votes to gain a seat through preferential votes. Of those placed lower on the list (in unelectable positions), only a few manage to reach that number. In 2023, only Daniëlle Hirsch - number 27 on the GL/PvdA list - actually entered the House of Representatives through preferential votes. This year, it looks as though four additional women would do so: three from GL/PvdA and one from D66.
But what, then, if we were to abolish that preference threshold and allocate all seats on the basis of preferential votes?
Let’s start with some percentages. It’s important to note that there are large differences between parties in the total number of preferential votes cast. While 54% of GL/PvdA voters cast a preferential vote, only 9% of PVV voters did so (see figure 1a). Across the board, however, a preferential vote is often a vote for a woman - even on the right - though that tendency is stronger among progressive parties (figure 1b).
Result: reordering of the candidate lists
Does the preferential vote also lead to a reordering of the candidate lists? Again, the answer is yes - and we see this most clearly with GL/PvdA and D66.
To make comparisons between the parties, I look at shifts within the top 25 candidates, regardless of how many seats a party actually won. My hypothetical House of Representatives therefore has only 125 seats, with each party receiving 25.
Based on the original candidate lists, that House would have 60 women and 65 men. Preferential votes would change this considerably: 71 women and only 54 men - an increase of eleven women.
Which parties do these women come from? And who would rise sharply on the lists (by 10 or more places), fall significantly (by 10 or more places), or newly enter or drop out of the top 25?
What does this look like for GroenLinks/PvdA?
First, GL/PvdA. The GL/PvdA candidate list included 14 women and 11 men. When reordered according to the number of preferential votes received, the top 25 would consist of 20 women and 5 men. The table below shows the candidates who rise convincingly (⇧) and the women who newly enter the top 25 (♢).
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Riser/ new entrant |
|
Daniëlle Hirsch (v) |
27 |
7 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Glimina Chakor (v) |
23 |
10 |
⇧ |
|
Marleen Haage (v) |
26 |
11 |
⇧/♢ |
|
April Ranshuijsen (v) |
33 |
19 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Inge Oosting (v) |
30 |
21 |
♢ |
|
Eylem Köseoglu (v) |
34 |
22 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Eva de Bruijn (v) |
43 |
23 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Marjolein Moorman (v) |
50 |
24 |
⇧/♢ |
Habtamu de Hoop is the only male riser
No convincingly rising men? That’s right. In fact, it appears that the only man rising within the upper half of the list was Habtamu de Hoop, who moved up slightly - from 12th to 8th place. Other men, by contrast, dropped sharply (⇩) and left the top 25 altogether (○).
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Fallers/ dropouts |
|
Tom van der Lee (m) |
9 |
30 |
⇩/○ |
|
Mohamed Mohandis (m) |
14 |
31 |
⇩/○ |
|
Geert Gabriëls (m) |
15 |
25 |
⇩ |
|
Joris Thijssen (m) |
16 |
38 |
⇩/○ |
|
Raoul White (m) |
21 |
32 |
⇩/○ |
The pattern for D66
We see this pattern with D66 as well. The original list included 13 women and 12 men in the top 25. When reordered according to the preferential votes cast, the list would consist of 15 women and 10 men.
What stands out for D66 is that several prominent party figures rise sharply: Sigrid Kaag, but also Alexander Pechtold, Robbert Dijkgraaf, and Jan Terlouw all enter the top 25.
These male party heavyweights explain why the shift at the top of D66 was not even more in favour of women. Without them, the virtual top 25 would have consisted of 17 women and 8 men. The table below shows the female risers and new entrants to D66’s top 25.
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Riser/ new entrant |
|
Sigrid Kaag (v) |
80 |
11 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Robbert Dijkgraaf (m) |
78 |
14 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Kiki Hagen (v) |
38 |
21 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Meryem Çimen (v) |
26 |
23 |
♢ |
|
Alexander Pechtold (m) |
76 |
24 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Jan Terlouw (m) |
79 |
25 |
⇧/♢ |
Beyond the mentioned party heavyweights, we see at D66 - as with GL/PvdA - that it is mainly men who drop sharply and disappear from the top of the list.
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Fallers/ dropouts |
|
Joost Sneller (m) |
5 |
17 |
⇩ |
|
Felix Klos (m) |
16 |
28 |
⇩/○ |
|
Alberg Spencer (m) |
19 |
29 |
⇩/○ |
|
Sjoerd Warmerdam (m) |
18 |
40 |
⇩/○ |
A slightly different pattern for the VVD
Now for the VVD. Here we see, for the first time, a slightly different pattern. The numbers of women and men in the top 25 would have remained the same - 14 women and 11 men - but the shifts are of a different kind. Whereas at GL/PvdA and D66 women rose convincingly and men generally dropped sharply (setting aside the D66 party heavyweights), here we see three men rising strongly alongside five women falling significantly.
Risers and new entrants:
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Riser/ new entrant |
|
Wendy van Eijk-Nagel (v) |
17 |
9 |
⇧ |
|
Daan Kort (m) |
24 |
11 |
⇧ |
|
Dieke van Groningen (v) |
40 |
13 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Maarten vd Weijden (m) |
80 |
14 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Peter Valstar (m) |
26 |
15 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Rosemarijn Dral (v) |
29 |
19 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Nupur Kohli (v) |
53 |
24 |
⇧/♢ |
Fallers and dropouts:
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Fallers/ dropouts |
|
Eelco Heinen (m) |
7 |
18 |
⇩ |
|
Mariëlle Paul (v) |
10 |
21 |
⇩ |
|
Judith Tielen (v) |
15 |
25 |
⇩ |
|
Hester Veltman-Kamp (v) |
16 |
27 |
⇩/○ |
|
Claire Martens-America (v) |
20 |
30 |
⇩/○ |
|
Ingrid Michon-Derkzen (v) |
19 |
37 |
⇩/○ |
One more woman in the CDA list’s top 25
The CDA also entered the election with a balanced top: 13 women and 12 men. When the CDA list is reordered according to preferential votes, we see that one additional woman would have joined the top 25 - resulting in 14 women and 11 men.
What do the movements within the top 25 look like? Here too, we see a more mixed picture, this time slightly favouring male risers.
Risers and new entrants:
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Riser/ new entrant |
|
Antje Beers (v) |
36 |
17 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Marieke Spek (v) |
29 |
20 |
♢ |
|
Arjen van Gijssel (m) |
26 |
21 |
♢ |
|
Stef Luijten (m) |
39 |
22 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Dani Bracke (m) |
43 |
24 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Floris Out (m) |
30 |
25 |
♢ |
Fallers and dropouts:
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Fallers/ dropouts |
|
Evert Jan Slootweg (m) |
12 |
27 |
⇩/○ |
|
Saida Chaoui-Nhass (v) |
13 |
31 |
⇩/○ |
|
Sarath Hamstra (v) |
16 |
26 |
⇩/○ |
|
Johan Goos (m) |
22 |
32 |
⇩/○ |
|
Paul Boogaard (m) |
23 |
35 |
⇩/○ |
|
René Segers-Hoogendoorn (m) |
25 |
36 |
⇩/○ |
More women for the PVV, too, under preferential voting
Lastly, the PVV. The PVV was the only party without a balanced list, presenting 6 women and 19 men. Interestingly, however, we also see that preferential voting would push more women upward: 8 women and 17 men. Still heavily skewed towards men, of course, but even so - preferential voting would also bring more women into the House of Representatives for the PVV.
|
Candidate |
from |
to |
Riser/ new entrant |
|
Jeanet Nijhof-Leeuw (v) |
23 |
9 |
⇧ |
|
Marina Vondeling (v) |
34 |
14 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Eric Esser (m) |
29 |
17 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Gom van Strien (m) |
45 |
18 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Annette Raijer (v) |
42 |
21 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Patrick Crijns (m) |
32 |
22 |
⇧/♢ |
|
Hidde Heutink (m) |
26 |
24 |
♢ |
|
Robert Rep (m) |
40 |
26 |
⇧ |
And what about those who drop? For the PVV, the number of preferential votes is so low that shifts further down the list (beyond number 20) involve only a few dozen votes. Moreover, there were no women left on the list at that point. So, every place gained by a man necessarily comes at the expense of another man.
So, can we draw a clear conclusion from all this? No - that would require proper research into patterns across multiple election years and with much more data. But was this a fun little glimpse into the world of preferential voting? I hope so!